As Americans know well, there is a dangerous gap between destroying an enemy’s capabilities and achieving a lasting victory. On paper, the tally of U.S. military operations in Iran looks like an absolute sweep: Iran’s navy lies at the bottom of the Gulf, its skies are controlled by U.S. and Israeli jets, its nuclear infrastructure is shattered, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead.
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These are tangible, hard-fought successes that give Washington unprecedented leverage. Yet battlefield dominance is not the same as strategic victory. If the United States continues to be caught in a cycle of bombardment followed by tepid diplomatic engagement with Iran’s authoritarian Islamic regime, the price may be the alienation of the single greatest ally America has in the region: the Iranian people.
The support of the Iranian people
Iran’s younger generations are educated, digitally connected and exhausted by religious authoritarianism. Surveys from as recently as 2024 indicate that as much as 89% of the country supports democratic reform. Seventy-eight percent believe Iran’s foreign policy is responsible for the economic troubles of ordinary citizens, and only 12% support the foreign policy of the corrupt regime.
Even surveys commissioned by the Islamic Republic itself (which likely overstate support for the government’s positions) show a public which is deeply disappointed by its leadership. In a leaked government report asking the Iranian public what they felt was the best way forward with the United States, 44% of Iranians supported a ceasefire and negotiations, and nearly 20% supported the acceptance of all U.S. conditions.
With so much of Iran’s public still on America’s side, we cannot risk losing the support of the Iranian people by doubling or tripling down on endless war, or by legitimizing the existing regime through engagement: both courses of action that play perfectly into the theocracy’s hands. President Donald Trump may have threatened to destroy Iranian civilization, but the Islamic Republic has been doing it for decades.
The Islamic Republic, by design, has turned Shiism into a cult of martyrdom and is more than happy to sacrifice Iran’s people, livelihood, and future to maintain its ideological war against the United States and Israel. Lasting peace will only be achieved when the Iranian people are able to determine their own destiny.
The United States must pursue a strategy that facilitates and mobilizes the courage and capabilities of the Iranian people over the blunt force of bombs.
How China is utilizing the war in Iran
The president must also remember that the bigger picture of this war expands far beyond Iran’s borders. While the U.S., its allies and the Iranian people are bleeding, China is reaping strategic dividends without firing a single shot. Beijing is actively framing itself to the rest of the world — and particularly to Washington’s uneasy regional allies — as the calm, predictable and reliable partner in an increasingly volatile global order.
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The ongoing military campaign has begun to drive sharp wedges between the United States and its European and Gulf partners, who are terrified of regional fallout and economic paralysis. If the status quo continues, American partners, particularly in the Gulf, may feel they have no alternative but to partner more closely with China to secure their long-term interests.
As the U.S. ponders its next move, it must not fall into an endless cycle of one-upmanship with the Islamic Republic nor act out of desperation. Already, whispers in national security circles have suggested a push to leverage regional separatist groups — particularly along Kurdish borderlands — to fracture the regime’s territorial control. If true, such a cure would be worse than the disease.
Breaking the country in such a manner would functionally lead to the Talibanization of Iran — hardly a recipe for democracy or regional stability. More likely, it would trigger a devastating civil and sectarian war that could destabilize the region for generations.
Securing true victory in Iran
America’s ultimate strategic objectives — preventing a nuclear-armed Iran and dismantling its threat network — are entirely legitimate. But an endless cycle of conflict with the Islamic Republic resurrects fundamentalism and is the most dangerous mechanism to achieve them. A true course correction requires abandoning the illusion of victory through force alone and adopting a sophisticated pressure strategy in collaboration with European, Asian and Gulf allies.
Crucially, America should build global support to empower the Iranian people directly by opening routes to unfiltered internet access, supporting civil society and exposing the regime’s systemic failures and corruption on the world stage.
Securing a peaceful, stable and democratic Iran will not be achieved with another volley of Tomahawk missiles. It will not be forged in the fire of civilian suffering. It will happen when the Iranian people are given the space, tools and freedom to reclaim their own nation from within.
Trump can avoid the Pyrrhic trap and resist playing into the dictatorship’s hands. To do so, the United States must pursue a strategy that facilitates and mobilizes the courage and capabilities of the Iranian people over the blunt force of bombs.
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