There will soon be fewer ‘college-age’ Utahns — so what can local colleges do to protect enrollments?

A couple of years ago, Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz sat down with the Deseret News and pointed out diminishing head counts in the Beehive State’s elementary and secondary schools.

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The speaker warned that eventually the state’s K-12 enrollment decreases would be felt across Utah’s public colleges and universities.

Those anticipated college enrollment dips subsequently helped prompt a dramatic strategic reinvestment plan in Utah higher education that continues today.

Savvy hockey players move where the puck’s going, not where the puck’s at — and that wisdom applies to Utah’s higher education future, Schultz said in 2024. “As leaders in the state, we need to be looking at not what’s in front of us today — we need to be looking at the future.”

Now a brings tighter focus on Schultz’s “heads-up” regarding the future of Utah’s college-age population.

“Utah’s demographic landscape is changing,” said Heidi Prior, senior public policy analyst at the Gardner Institute and lead author of the brief in a news release. “The approaching decline in college-age residents reflects a broader shift in Utah’s age structure, with important implications for higher education.”

Over the past decade, the state’s growing population of 18- to 24-year-olds — the traditional age for attending college — has ensured steady enrollment across Utah’s public colleges and universities.

But that demographic trend has an expiration date, according to the report. Projections point to Utah’s college-age population across almost every county dipping in a few years.

“Around 2029, this population will begin a period of decline expected to last about 20 years,” according to the Gardner report. “Utah’s college-age population will decrease by approximately 85,000 young adults over this period … returning the state’s college-age population to its 2021 level before growth resumes in the late 2040s.”

Fewer college-age Utahns means, of course, a smaller pool for the state’s public higher institutions from which to recruit.

Mixed feelings about higher education — and its enrollment impact

But the enrollment challenges facing Utah colleges in the coming years extend beyond mere population figures.

Fewer high school graduates across the country have been enrolling in college in recent years. And enrollment at Utah’s public higher education institutions declined from 2019 to 2025, according to the report.

Some of that matriculation dip may be attributed to a growing debate in recent years about the value of higher education. A Gallup poll released in July revealed only 38% of U.S. adults report some level of confidence in the country’s colleges and universities.

Utah residents share similar doubts about higher education institutions nationally.

But a March Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey revealed a sizable majority of Utahns — 67% — reported a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence when asked about the state’s colleges and universities.

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And while tuition rates across Utah’s public colleges and universities have increased a bit in recent years, higher education in the Beehive State remains a relative bargain compared to many other areas of the country.

A recent WalletHub study noted Utahns enjoy the lowest college debt burden in the nation.

Different Utah schools — different funding challenges

The Gardner report suggests that Utah’s higher education institutions will feel the state’s expected college-age dip differently.

Several public schools in Utah — including Southern Utah University, Salt Lake Community College and the state’s technical colleges — enroll higher shares of students who are 25 or over.

“The diverse age demographics at these schools may lessen the impact of the projected decline in Utah’s 18- to 24-year-old population,” noted the report. “Conversely, Utah’s research universities, along with Snow College and Utah Tech University, primarily serve 18-to-24-year-olds and may experience greater impacts.”

Meanwhile, the expected drop in traditional college-age Utahns will likely impact institutions that rely more heavily on tuition and student fees.

The state’s regional colleges rely more on tuition and fees than research universities such as the University of Utah and Utah State University, which receive significant shares of funding from federal and other research grants.

But assured flows of research dollars are not a given. “Changes to federal research funding may create financial pressures independent of enrollment trends,” the report noted.

How can Utah colleges strategize to meet demographic dips?

Demographic trends do not, on their own, determine outcomes, the report emphasized. Utah lawmakers and education leaders can manage the expected demographic shifts by “transforming, conserving and realigning.”

Some of those efforts are already happening.

Current legislative initiatives such as the strategic reinvestment plans being implemented across the state’s higher education system, along with the 2026 research-driven Higher Education Innovation Pilot Program, are designed to maximize future funding efficiencies and academic opportunities for students.

And Utah can also foster future enrollment by prioritizing student retention and completion efforts — while also attracting more so-called “nontraditional” students.

“As Utah’s traditional college-age population declines, adults age 25 and older represent one of the state’s greatest opportunities to sustain higher education enrollment,” the report noted.

“The number of Utahns age 25 and older is projected to grow substantially over the coming decades, expanding the potential pool of learners in this age group.”

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