As President Donald Trump’s polling numbers continue to sink nationally, Utah voters are still throwing their support behind the Republican Party when it comes to the upcoming midterm elections.
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A majority of Utah voters (52%) say they disapprove of Trump’s job performance nearly halfway through his second term while just 46% say they approve, according to a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by Morning Consult. Still, those numbers are better than how the president is faring nationally as 56% of U.S. voters say they disapprove compared to 41% who approve, the poll shows.
“There is dissatisfaction not just across the country, but in the state of Utah with President Trump. But dissatisfaction does not mean defection,” Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, told the Deseret News. “Clearly, in the state of Utah, voters are looking at their their discomfort with some of the things with President Donald Trump, but it’s not translating to them changing their party necessarily.”
Trump’s faltering approval ratings are partially attributed to his handling of the war in Iran, which voters have been divided on since its onset in February.
Only 41% of Utah voters say they approve of recent military actions in Iran, slightly higher than national polling that shows U.S. voters at 38%, according to the polling. A majority of Utahns (52%) disapprove of the military action, falling even with the percentage of voters who oppose nationally.
When it specifically comes to Trump’s handling of the conflict, voters are even more opposed.
About 56% of Utah voters say they disapprove of the president’s strategy related to the conflict, slightly lower than the national disapproval rating of 58%, according to the poll. Only 38% of Utahns say they support Trump’s handling of the conflict.
Republicans ahead in Utah, Democrats nationally
Still, Utah voters are more inclined to support Republican candidates when it comes to the midterm elections.
Half of Utah voters (50%) say they would vote for the Republican candidate over the Democrat on a general ballot in the midterm elections, according to the poll. Only 39% said they’d back the Democratic candidate.
Both those numbers come as Democrats are faring better nationally, topping Republicans 48% to 42% on a generic ballot.
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“Republican loyalty is still strong in in Utah, but loyalty and enthusiasm are not the same thing,” Perry said. “The top issue for Utahns continues to be the economy and and their ability to provide for their family, and those are the issues that kind of bleed into these broader issues nationally. I think that’s one of the key things that you can’t really tease out of this poll is the enthusiasm versus loyalty.”
The Republican Party itself has split approval among Utah voters, with 49% saying they approve compared to 47% who say the opposite, according to the poll. Republicans are further underwater nationally with a 53% disapproval rate.
Democrats are underwater with Utahns as 37% of state voters say they approve of the Democratic Party compared to 58% who say they disapprove. Democrats have a split rating of 47% both in approval and disapproval when it comes to national polling.
A Democratic candidate, Ben McAdams, is expected to win the 1st Congressional District, which means the state will likely send a Democrat to Congress for the first time in six years, after a redrawn congressional map included a district favoring Democrats in Salt Lake County.
Republican incumbents are expected to win in the other three districts.
The four congressional races in Utah are not expected to be particularly competitive. While Trump could be the make-or-break factor for Republicans elsewhere, that will likely not be the case in Utah.
“Sometimes you can be motivated by a very competitive race, and we do not have those right now in the state of Utah,” Perry said. “The concern isn’t really just about the approval of President Trump. It’s about making sure that the Republican Party shows up to vote.”
“The biggest concern for the Republicans is not whether or not people still identify as Republican in Utah, which is still the majority. The concern, or at least maybe what they need to be focusing on, is making sure your dissatisfaction does not mean you don’t need to participate,” he continued. “This is a group of people who are unlikely to change their party because they’re dissatisfied with the president. But what may happen or sometimes does happen is that they just decide not to show up and vote, and that is as just as concerning for the Republicans.”
The polling is a snapshot of voters’ mindsets between Oct. 13-20, less than one month before the midterm elections. The state poll surveyed 875 registered Utah voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points; the national poll surveyed 2,050 registered voters with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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