- Forecasters predict a “very strong” or “super” El Niño weather pattern for the 2026-27 winter.
- El Niño typically brings heavy snowfall to southern Utah with a slower start in northern Utah.
- Some of Utah’s snowiest winters on record have come during El Niño.
With temperatures hitting triple digits in Utah, skiing and snowboarding might be the last thing on people’s minds.
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But it’s never too early to pray for snow or do a snow dance. At the very least, it would bring cool thoughts amid the scorching heat.
Weather forecasters, though, are already looking ahead as the odds of a strong to historic El Niño are growing. Some are already dubbing it a “Super El Niño.” Some meteorologists use “very strong” and “super” interchangeably.
“Are there breathless news headlines and dubious social media posts floating around that may be exaggerating the severity or definitiveness of outcomes with respect to El Niño in 2026? Sure; there’s no question,“ per Weather West.
“But the recently observed and ongoing rapid escalation of conditions in the tropical Pacific, plus the consistently and increasingly extreme forward-looking model projections, truly do suggest that something extraordinary could unfold in the global climate system later this year.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño will gain strength through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. And there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October through December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.
Winter sports enthusiasts might want to take note.
What is a ‘Super El Niño?’
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than average. When the sea surface temperature there runs at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for a sustained period, meteorologists call it El Niño. When it runs cold, it’s called La Niña.
Meteorologists typically use the term Super El Niño when temperatures climb 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Meteorologists will compare specific Pacific temperatures to the average temperatures in the area and compared to the rest of the tropical oceans to determine that 2-degree threshold.
“It sounds small. A patch of the Pacific being a degree or two warmer than usual doesn’t seem like it should matter to anyone who isn’t a fish. But that warm water reshapes the jet stream, which reshapes where storms go, which is the only part of this article that actually matters to skiers,” forecaster Evan Thayer wrote for Ski Utah.
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Thayer noted “very strong” is the same El Niño category as the epic winter of 1982–83, one of the snowiest on record in Utah. Downtown Salt Lake City flooded when all the snow in the Cottonwood canyons melted at the same time.
What does El Niño mean for Utah ski resorts?
Thayer said El Niño has always had a “bit of a messaging problem” in the Beehive State because its reputation and track record don’t always match. Typically it pushes the storm track south, resulting in above-average snowfall — sometimes well above average — in southern Utah, he said.
“The Wasatch, on the other hand, has a more complicated relationship,” Thayer said.
Historically, strong El Niño winters have delivered average to below-average snowpack to northern Utah, especially early in the season, he said. The pattern tends to be slow in November and December but picks up from January through spring.
That’s basically what happened in 2023–24, the most recent meaningful El Niño winter, he said, noting a quiet start, some grumbling on ski forums, and then Alta racking up 600 inches in the end.
“Given that this year’s event is trending toward ‘very strong’ rather than ‘moderate,’ there’s a real argument for optimism beyond the historical average. The strongest El Niño on record, 1982–83, didn’t play by the ‘meh for the Wasatch’ rulebook at all — the Cottonwoods reportedly picked up 800 to 900 inches that season, which, until 2022–23, was often cited as the snowiest winter Utah has ever recorded,” per Thayer.
The bottom line, he said, is that southern Utah should be feeling very good about its odds heading into 2026–27. Northern Utah’s forecast is a little more “trust the process” — a potentially slow-loading November and December, with real reason to believe things turn on later in the season.
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