- Nevada Gov. Lombardo, a Republican, has received endorsements from major Democratic officials.
- Trump’s PAC has spent more than $3 million backing a video game composer in the 3rd District race.
- National Democrats added Nevada’s deeply Republican 2nd District to its “Red to Blue” program.
Nevada squandered Republican hopes for a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections. Now the Silver State could stymie Democratic predictions of a “blue tsunami” despite the White House weighing down GOP candidates nationwide.
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A recent poll puts Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo just ahead of his Democratic opponent, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, four years after the former Clark County Sheriff flew to a narrow victory as other GOP candidates in Nevada fizzled out.
The survey conducted last month by Noble Predictive Insights found Lombardo with a two-percentage-point lead, well within the margin of error, but ahead of other Republicans who will appear atop the November ballot.
Fundraising energy around GOP candidates running in the 1st and 3rd congressional districts suggests the party is once again hopeful for pick-up opportunities in Nevada since seeing President Donald Trump win the state in 2024.
The president is at the center of what makes Nevada’s midterm outcomes uncertain for observers in both parties.
Trump’s inclusion of no tax on tips in last year’s “big, beautiful bill” disproportionally benefited Nevada, but the state has also been hit hard by falling tourism and rising gas prices amid wars in global trade and the Middle East.
While Nevada’s Trump-endorsed congressional candidates have leaned into their MAGA bonafides, Lombardo has avoided Democratic attempts to lump him in with the federal policies of the Trump administration.
Instead, the former Clark County sheriff has mobilized a bipartisan slate of supporters that includes Clark County’s Democratic district attorney and teachers’ union — which claims to be one of the largest in the country.
What did Lombardo do?
For many voters, the race cuts through national narratives focused on Trump, according to former Clark County commissioner Susan Brager, who serves on the Board of Regents over the Nevada System of Higher Education.
As a lifelong Democrat, Brager said she considered both candidates carefully before deciding to back Lombardo.
“I don’t do that lightheartedly,” Brager told the Deseret News. “I really looked at character, the ambition, where he wants to go, what he’s done, and I believe Nevada needs four more years of Gov. Lombardo.”
As governor, Lombardo has worked with Democratic supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature to create a track record centered on education, including a landmark funding increase for schools in 2023.
He also oversaw compromises to expand mail-in voting paired with enhanced voter identification procedures, and successfully lobbied for a housing bill to direct $133 million in state funds to subsidize affordable housing development.
But Lombardo chose not to appear for a televised debate on Thursday to defend his tenure. Ford used the platform to accuse Lombardo of being complicit in Trump’s impact on the economy and of supporting tax breaks for data centers.
Ahead of the race, Lombardo amassed what his campaign called the largest war chest in Nevada gubernatorial history. Lombardo’s 2-to-1 fundraising lead has been accompanied by an even greater advantage in outside spending.
Nevada congressional contests
Money momentum has also characterized the candidacy of state Sen. Carrie Buck, who claims to be the only GOP challenger in America to outraise her Democratic incumbent opponent for three reporting periods in a row this cycle.
Democratic Rep. Dina Titus, now in her seventh term, overcame what some said were unfavorable odds in 2022, winning by a margin of more than six points. Even with Trump on the ticket, Titus won by a similar margin in 2024.
Likewise, 3rd District Democratic Rep. Susie Lee was said to be at risk of losing her seat in 2022 but beat her GOP opponent by nearly four points. However, Trump appears to have set his eyes on the seat in the upcoming midterms.
The president’s chosen candidate Marty O’Donnell, known for composing the video game soundtrack for Halo, has been selected as the recipient of more than $3 million in advertising expenditures by Trump’s MAGA inc. super PAC.
This spending, coupled with a $3 million loan from O’Donnell to himself, has put him ahead of Lee in the dollar race. In a show of confidence, Trump tapped O’Donnell to speak at the first-ever Republican midterm convention in September.
Momentum or ‘smoke and mirrors’?
But cash alone likely cannot make up for the historical headwinds pushing against the GOP. The president’s party typically loses dozens of House seats in midterm years — especially when the president has a low approval rating.
This should cement Democratic-leaning seats like Nevada’s 1st and 3rd districts as safe. Big GOP donations are just bluster, according to Shelbi Swartz, the executive director of a progressive nonprofit group, Battle Born Progress.
“I think that is largely smoke and mirrors meant to manufacture confidence in the Republican Party here and to boost Governor Lombardo at the top of the ticket,” Swartz told the Deseret News.
The forces of increased inflation and AI infrastructure are simply too much for fundraising to erase, Swartz said. The election will be decided by the kitchen table Trump has set, and Lombardo has “tied his wagon to the Trump train.”
As the quintessential bellwether state, politicos everywhere will be watching Nevada to see how Trump’s second-term agenda lands with voters ahead of the next presidential election, according to Democratic fundraiser Kalani Tissot.
With its diverse, working class demographics, and hyper-sensitive economy centered around the Las Vegas Strip, Nevada is an easy indicator of political trends, said Tissot, who has based his consulting firm in Nevada.
All eyes on Nevada
Democratic hopefuls for the 2028 presidential nomination, including California Rep. Ro Khanna, White House adviser Rahm Emanuel and former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, have scheduled dozens of visits to the state.
“I firmly believe that Democrats need to win Nevada statewide next month to make sure that we have a solid foundation for a Democratic presidential candidate to win Nevada in 2028,” Tissot told the Deseret News.
This is looking likelier than ever, Tissot said, with the announcement that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Nevada’s solidly Republican 2nd Congressional District to its “Red to Blue” program.
Trump won the district by 14 points. But controversy surrounding the GOP nominee, David Flippo, and the strength of Democratic candidate Teresa Benitez-Thompson, has put the district in play.
Historically, neither the deeply red 2nd District, nor the blue 1st and 3rd districts, have been seen as toss ups.
But the feeling now is that anything could happen as Nevada finds itself in the crosscurrents of Republican policies at the federal and state levels, according to GOP consultant Steven Hilding, who is working on the 2nd District race.
“All signs to me are pointing that these are extremely competitive,” Hilding told the Deseret News. “I don’t think that any of these seats are a slam dunk for Republicans, and I don’t think any of these seats are a slam dunk for Democrats.”
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