We can confidently state that this was one of the most exciting primary elections in Utah’s history. Incumbent Republicans and quasi-incumbent Democrats were on the line amid redistricting controversy. Furthermore, the anti-establishment fervor gripping the nation impacted local elections. Most of the results are in, and we offer analysis of why candidates won or why they may yet win (if too many ballots remain uncounted).
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Although the ballots are still being counted, what do the results overall suggest as to new trends and old rules reaffirmed for this election season?
Cowley and Pignanelli: The biggest loser Tuesday night was data centers. Almost every incumbent perceived to be close to these controversial developments was on the ropes. This included Utah Senate President Stuart Adams and Box Elder County Commissioners Lee Perry and Vance Smith, who were all defeated. These results will affect how this issue is messaged for future projects.
Traditional polling was the big winner as it correctly predicted the results of the congressional races. Text-message and online-only surveys were used in many legislative races. This new approach is held in suspicion by veteran campaign operatives, and for good reason. They were, at best, 50% accurate.
Incumbents across the country are dropping like flies this primary election season. Many Utah officeholders seeking reelection faced tougher-than-usual challenges, but about half of those in highly contested races have held on so far. The truly interesting trend for Utah is that incumbency is not an advantage for legislators but a huge benefit for members of Congress.
The longtime rule that it is impossible to buy a legislative race outright was strongly reaffirmed. Adams and Sen. Dan McCay significantly outspent their opponents. A local PAC, well funded by liberals, spent heavily to unseat Sen. Brady Brammer and Rep. Jordan Teuscher, but the effort backfired.
With large margins and uncompetitive general election races, we can declare who Utah’s congressional representatives will be
Cowley and Pignanelli:
Congressional District 1 – Ben McAdams handily beat his gaggle of challengers with more than double the number of votes as the second-place finisher, Nate Blouin. Current tallies indicate significantly higher voter turnout in this race than the statewide average. The polling was fairly accurate with this race, but it was easy to label McAdams the leader. As the quasi-incumbent, he significantly outfundraised all of his opponents, further securing the positive name identification he garnered as Salt Lake County mayor, state senator and former congressman.
This race revealed a strong left-wing progressive element in Salt Lake County, as three of the four candidates are from the Democratic Socialist arena. Fearful that Utah could be represented by extreme elements, 7,500 voters not registered as Democrats requested ballots, likely supporting the moderate McAdams. Always the shrewd politician, McAdams will keep them in his corner to fend off another potential challenge from the left in two years.
Congressional District 2 – Incumbent Blake Moore staved off challenger Karianne Lisonbee. The personal attacks and attempts to link Moore to the redistricting commission did not work. Voters were impressed with his GOP leadership position. Of the three congressional primaries, this is the closest margin.
Congressional District 3 – Congresswoman Celeste Maloy smoked perennial candidate Phil Lyman with the largest margin of all the congressional primaries. Maloy oozes competence, while a likely Lyman fatigue is evident from his many unsuccessful races. This result is especially heartfelt for Maloy as she won the 2024 primary by less than 200 votes.
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Legislative races and incumbent oustings
Cowley and Pignanelli:
Senate District 7 – (Davis County) Adams conceded to Stephanie Hollist Tuesday night in the most stunning upset this cycle. Adams is one of the most powerful officials in the state and through decades of public service has made a tremendous impact on Utah’s transportation, economic development and education initiatives. Many are pointing to the kerfuffle over the Box Elder data center as the cause for his ousting..primary electionte District 18 – (Salt Lake County) McCay was defeated by Rep. Doug Fiefia in what was a battle of personality differences. McCay outfundraised Fiefia 2-1, yet Fiefia won the delegate vote and now the Primary Election, with more than twice as many ballots in his favor.
House District 16 – (Davis County) Rep. Trevor Lee lost to Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson. Recent allegations about business impropriety likely contributed to Lee’s unseating.
Senate District 14 – (Salt Lake County) Sen. Stephanie Pitcher easily dismissed complaints by some establishment Democrats and thoroughly stomped on her opponent, Tayler Khater, capturing almost 80% of the votes. Pitcher’s effective style on Capitol Hill is now vindicated.
House District 40 – (Salt Lake County) Rep. Andrew Stoddard pushed back against Democratic challenger Wendy Davis.
Salt Lake County Attorney – Sim Gill will move to the general election after defeating Salt Lake City Assistant Attorney General Shawn Robinson.
Technically, too close to call, but we call them anyway.
Cowley and Pignanelli:
Senate District 21 – (Utah County) Brammer will continue to best City Councilwoman Kelly Smith.
House District 44 – (Salt Lake) Teuscher is leading Union-backed candidate Scott Stephenson and will prevail.
Utah County Clerk – Aaron Davidson will lose to Corey Astill. Astill is supported by Utah GOP heavyweights. Davidson has recently come under fire for his poor choice in naming lightning-rod Kai Schwemmer chief deputy clerk.